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The Daily Rundown 2012 Year Ender News/Business. (2012) New.

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Clinton 15, Obama 11, Us 9, America 5, Washington 5, U.s. 4, Joe Biden 4, Citi 4, Kevin 3, Iowa 3, Paul Ryan 3, Stephanie 3, Phillips 3, Marco Rubio 3, Virginia 3, Ronald Reagan 3, Florida 2, Wisconsin 2, Msnbc 2, Rubio 2,
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  MSNBC    The Daily Rundown    The Daily Rundown 2012 Year  
   Ender  News/Business.  (2012) New.  

    December 24, 2012
    12:00 - 1:00pm PST  

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auld lang syne.
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propelling president obama to four more years. but when's in store for a second term? and what will the president be able to accomplish before leaving the white house? recent history shows some highs and lows for second-term presidents. what can president obama learn from the mistakes and big breaks that shaped the country for the last 30 years? and a who's who to keep your eyes on for the coming year. and years. will new names emerge as the leading voices of their parties while old, familiar ones drive the early jockeying for the next presidential fight. happy holidays and new year. and hello from washington. that is special year-end edition of "the daily rundown." i'm chuck todd. we'll look at what lessons we got from 2012, what they'll mean for 2013, how power could shift in 2014 and who's taking the long hard look for a bid for 2016 and maybe slipping in 2015
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just for kicks. let's get to my first read. how did president obama weighed down bay jobless rate higher than any incumbent since fdr win 332 electoral votes, sweep 8 of the 9 battleground states and have his party pick up senate seats to get to 55? as the republican party looks ahead to 2016, here are lessons hopefuls might want to keep in mind. lesson one, if you don't define yourself, your opponent will do it for you. ads and timing matter. romney let the president's early attacks go largely unanswered. romney's campaign answered after a long, expensive primary to choose how to spend at the time limited funds and tested better they claim than bio spots or defenses of his personal record. in the end, obama beat romney by ten points.
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on the economic values question that was this, which candidate is more in touch with people like you? 53% said romney's policies would favor the rich. 10% said that the about the president's policies and romney, first republican nominee in the history of our nbc sls "wall street journal" poll and ended with a painful number, 47% of the voters viewing him positively. the obama campaign was also able to get more bang for the buck because they bought ads early and they were very careful about where to buy the ads. in the last week of the election, the obama campaign paid $550 for a single ad in raleigh, north carolina. the romney campaign had to sell out $2,665. the obama campaign bought it way ahead of time. lesson two, the republican brand needs a hard look. the gop favorable rating
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underwater for two years. it's been nearly five years and the final poll, full poll before the election, just 36% of registered voters said they had a positive view of the republican party. 43% held a negative view. the democratic party's favorable rating in positive territory. though just barely at 42%-40%. more than 20 republican primary debates put immigration on full display. so now as the party debates to modernize, it has to repair the image. and that leads us to lesson three. demographics are destiny. romney won a higher percentage of the white vote than any candidate since ronald reagan in 1994 beating obama among white voters. by 14 points among white women. five points among independents. he won all the groups by more than george w. bush did in 2004.
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but he lost the election by a wider margin than john kerry. why? because the composition of the electorate changed. as the obama campaign predicted more than a year ago, the white portion dropped from 2008 to 72% in 2012. the president carried nearly eight in ten nonwhite voters including astounding 71% of latinos, 73% of the asian voters and 93% of black voters. remains a real question why the democratic nominee can hold the obama coalition together but the republican party is right to be reexamining the relationship with minorities. finally, lesson four, don't ignore the data. the polls matter and more are right than wrong. though public polling consistently showed the president ahead, the romney campaign sin veerly believed that romney would win.
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why? they assumed it would be wider and older than it was. the enthusiasm numbers favored them but they didn't have enough voters. many republicans bought in to an alternative polling universe. created by some media pollster master mind to depress republican voting. in 2016, much of the emphasis of both parties to match and improve on the obama campaign's data-driven technological juggernaut and a lesson of 2012, don't ignore the data available to anyone with a computer. second bucket, known as the second-term curse. american presidents successfully win re-election to have a rough ride in years five through eight thanks to legislative overreach, sometimes souring relations with congress, personnel problems, unforeseen external events or scandal. there's always an issue for second-term president and the
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first post election news conference the president himself acknowledged that his predecessors had their version of second-term struggles. >> i don't presume that because i won an election that everybody suddenly agrees with me on everything. i'm more than familiar with all of the literature about presidential overreach in second terms. >> but the familiarity doesn't always do the trick. here's president clinton after his re-election in 1996. >> in modern times, second terms for presidents have been disappoint original disastrous. i wonder if you have drawn any lessons on why that's so. >> things that derail a second term are basically three. one is some external event intervenes and the president can't fulfill the hopes or dreams. sometimes the president tries do too much. and the third is that sometimes a president essentially just runs out of steam.
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>> november 1972, after two weeks of re-election, president nixon told reporters, my study of elections in this country is that second terms almost inevitably are downhill. yes, richard nixon said that in '72. after a string of legislative successes in the first term and after narrowly winning a second term as president, president bush claimed a mandate. >> when you win, there is a feeling that the president have spoken and in embraced your point of view and that's what i intend to tell the congress. i earned capital in the campaign, political capital and now i intend to spend it. >> spend it he did. bush made this stark ambition to the press corps. >> just after the 2004 election, you seemed to have claimed a really enviable capital. would you make that claim today that -- >> i'd say i'm spending that
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capital on the war. >> not only did plummeting support for the war erode the ability to drive the second-term agenda but overreached. the efforts on immigration reform collapsed under the weight of the other issues. the administration bungled the response to hurricane katrina and of course relations with congress soured to the point that when bush nominated meyers to the supreme court, republicans didn't even fall in line. many conservatives privately and publicly called her unqualified. bush was forced to withdraw the nomination. in december 2008, shortly before leaving office, the job approval rating sunk to miserable 27%. congress was a thorn in the side of second-term presidents. it's a question of whether president obama forges a closer working relationship with congress this time around and then the second-term scandal. clinton dom natded and ended after a year because lewinski scandal began. congressional investigation and
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impeachment and then completely derailed any agenda he hoped to push in that second four years. >> i have to go back to work on my state of the union speech. and i worked on it until pretty late last night. but i want to say one thing to the american people. i want you to listen to me. i'm going to say this again. i did not have sexual relations with that woman. miss lewinski. >> though ronald reagan pushed through a tax overhaul in the second term he also became embroiled in the iran-contra affair. >> a few months ago i told the american people i did not trade arms for hostages. my heart and best intentions still tell me that's true but the facts and evidence tell me it is not. >> there's a bright side. if lincoln didn't have a second term he wouldn't have won the civil war. reagan's with the end of the cold wars and without a second
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term fdr would be remembered as the president that didn't end the great depression. still second terms don't last four years. they're shorter than that. how long will obama have? is he aware that the second term only lasts about a year to 18 months? finally, political junkies know we don't have to wait to 2016 or 2014 for the next fix. just next year, blockbuster races for governors in virginia and new jersey. in virginia, it's the clintons versus the tea party. as former democratic national committee chairman and clinton loyalist takes on virginia's republican attorney general. he put himself front and center in the multi-state challenge and a tea party favorite and a favorite of social conservatives. but money and the backing of the clintons didn't do the trick last time. he lost badly in a primary the first time for governor. key question this time. which flawed candidate win this
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is race? mcauliffe is hoping to end the curse. since 1976, the party that wins the start loses the gubernatorial election. senator warner defeated a republican earley. 52% of the vote. in 2005 after bush's re-election, tim cain beat kilgore. during president obama's difficult first year in office. and in an off-year election with turnout expected of 40%, the electorate is expected to be wider, older and conservative but will it be conservative enough to elect a ken kuchinelli? by the way, thinking of hillary's presidential campaign, send your resume to terry
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mcauliffe. in new jersey, where the governor's race is about chris christie and 2016 hoping to scare off any serious competition and building a pl platform and run for second term and presidential ambitions shaped in handling hurricane sandy effort. will christie that declared now's not my time in the fall of 2011 make moves in 2013 toward a presidential bid? watch him for clues. i can tell you. people close to christie believe the biggest mistake of mitt romney is not seeking a second term in massachusetts. they believe the best shot of becoming the nominee in 2016 is winning in new jersey in 2013. we have a gaggle of campaign veterans and political junkies joining us this hour. stephanie cutter, kevin madden from the campaign trail of their respective campaigns plus chris
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siz la will be here. we'll have the politicians to watch in the new year. you're watching a special edition of "the daily run down" only on msnbc. [ buzzing ] bye dad. drive safe. k. love you. [ chirping, buzzing continues ] [ horn honks ] [ buzzing continues ] [ male announcer ] the sprint drive first app. blocks and replies to texts while you drive. we can live without the &. visit sprint.com/drive.
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call it the dirty dozen. the 12 people we're going to be watching closely over 12 months. some of them are already household names. and the rest we expect will be pretty soon. here's the list i through out. biden, clinton, bennet, brown, warren and king. who, of course, is an independent but will caucus with the democrats on the republican side we have haley, rubio, ryan,
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pence, bush and demint. joining me now our end of the year gaggle for most of the show, contributor and managing editor, chris cillizza and perry bacon. stephanie cutter with president obama and kevin madden for governor romney's campaign. we asked all of you -- first of all, hello. >> hello. >> happy new year and all of you to pick. i threw out a dozen and asked you to pick two. again, not going to do the 2016 conversation now but we will in a few minutes. chris -- >> holding off. >> who are the two that jumped out at you thinking 2013? >> so i'm a little nerdy and focused on, you know, down ballot races and picked michael bennet, the colorado senator, the new head of the democratic senatorial campaign committee and tasked with trying to again
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keep a democratic senate majority, going to be difficult. you have 20 seats up. ten republican seats up. >> wants to be senate majority leader and why he's doing this. >> right. they asked him two years ago and said no. >> why pence? >> so i think mike pence, a guy that spent time in congress, the governor of indiana. i think he's a guy we underrate in terms of his influence. we have seen in places like ohio, florida, wisconsin how governors, particularly republican governs have influence. pence is a conservative who's a believer and i think going to push an agenda that will kind of -- >> i think so, too. that's why i put him on my dozen. perry, you picked two governors. >> jerry brown, really important. first time ever and since 1933 california's a super majority, meaning two thirds of the members of the house and senate are democrats. jerry brown and the democrats do whatever they want. we have one party government in the biggest state in the country and curious what's that mean? >> how does he use it?
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yep. >> a panacea. nikki haley is struggling. at the same time, she's a big national figure. the republicans are looking for diverse voices and she is a leading one and curious to see what she does going forward. >> all right. stephanie, you picks were -- one was predictable. one to me was unpredictable. >> i picked elizabeth warren who is my home state new senator and of course senator kennedy's seat and very important to me. i think she is probably the most high profile freshman senator -- >> without a doubt. >> without a doubt. >> probably since hillary clinton. right? >> probably. yes. i think you're right. and i think she is coming in the same way. keeping her head down. looking for more people to work with. reach across the aisle. moderating. >> steppingstone for her? >> i don't know. i don't want to guess but i know that there are some great things that she can accomplish there.
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potentially rumored on the senate banking committee. been a consumer watchdog. this is interesting to watch. >> and butting heads with democrats. that's interesting. your other pick? >> paul ryan. >> yeah. >> obviously, as a democrat, somebody i'm watching for a long time. i think he came out of this race with a good reputation. and i think that, you know, he has a lot of opportunity this year. he's known as a reformer in the party. the republican party is doing a lot of introspection of what they need to do to address the changing demographics of this country and an opportunity to step up. >> how does he do it in the house? >> he is a leader in the house and known as ideological. this is an opportunity to open it up a little bit. >> kevin, you picked with the big two. >> yeah. well, i think marco rubio is one of the people i picked because i think to perry's point, people looking for a new diverse voice
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inside the republican party and i think whether he likes it or not, he'll be a national figure in that regard and going to sort of be emblem attic of the republicans' abilities and effort to reach out to newer audiences and they're also looking for people that are going to represent the future of the party. many conservatives will use i think marco rubio as a vessel of rebuilding the party. >> his first test is immigration over the -- how does he does it? navigate it and still stick -- go conservative -- >> how he does not get pigeonholed as the hispanic guy and become somebody to be a leader. >> hillary clinton, what does she do in 2013? >> hillary clinton is whether -- she likes it or not, as well, a clinton industrial news complex. everything she does sparks speculation, sparks all of these incredible obsessing over whether it's a positioning for this year or for another year or
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positioning against somebody. >> right. >> that's something to happen and i think a lot of people looking at whether or not what her preparations look like and to inherit the obama success. >> yeah. you stuck me with the four that none of you picked. joe biden, got to figure out how to navigate the clinton industrial news complex. i like this. news cop plex. angus king, can he be independent? jeb bush. jim demint. do you buy ceo of the conservative movement? >> i think it's very hard for jim demint to go in to -- i think it's many ways sort of like an awo n aol/time warner m. jim demint wouds of the senate and in to something that's in the think tank world. >> more of this. talking 2016 of this.
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more from the gaggle coming up. six-year itch. it's a bed rom of conventional wisdom. is it a med up thing? we'll let you know whether we think it's real or simply a consequence. but first, our special trivia question. who's the first president and who was the most recent president to officially start a term on a sunday? the answer and more is coming up. i thought i'd start the video
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by showing you the apartment building where the fire was. when things like this happen, i think you find a new perspective on life. red cross put us in a hotel so we were able to stay together. we're strong and if we overcame that or if we can overcome that... we can overcome anything. [ sniffles ] ♪ well, as we get closer to the next midterm elections you will likely hear about the six-year itch. it's a theory that the party controlling the white house loses big. today's taking a deep dive in to whether it's real or simply a
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coincidence that just happened a few times. a look back at history, if you will. we show you what we're looking at. at the last five two-term presidents, truman, eisenhower, reagan, clinton and bush. truman, even though he wasn't elected in 1944, he took over after fdr took over five months in to his term. nixon is out before he resigned before the second midterm shallacking. you can see in that midterm in 1950, democratic party lost 28 seats in the house and 6 in the senate. in ike's second term, the democrats wiped out. 48 and 13 seats. reagan, 1986, eight and five seats. not so bad. more about that in a minute and did cost the republicans control of the senate in the process. president clinton is the big outlier here if you will recall. because he didn't lose anything in the second midterm. winning five house seats for the
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party. staying even in the senate and then president bush was hammered. republicans lost 30 seats in the house, 6 in the senate and more importantly control of the both houses were gone from the republicans. a couple things to note here. the 1998 election, of course, under president clinton marked the only time a sitting two-term president saw gains in the second midterm in the modern era. in addition, two-term presidents typically have a bad midterm and one not so bad. truman's party was much worse in '46 than it was in '50. reagan split decision after losing big in the house and gaining a senate seat, republicans lost seven senate seats in -- lost a bunch in '86 and the control but did better in the house. so, let's take a look at our next one. the two most recent examples of midterms. bill clinton's democrats lost 54 house seethes and 8 seats in
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'946 before turning the tables with the surprise wins in '98. both parties said it was due in part maybe in whole to the public backlash against republicans who seemed too focused on the lewinski scandal. president bush of course saw the opposite. had a great first midterm. not so great second one. two there. republicans gained ground under president bush. before losing big in 2006. what's behind the truth of the theory of the six-year itch? seems logical over the course of six years but when you look at each case, there are circumstances that make it hard to draw a sweeping conclusion. by the time his second midterm rolled around, truman was four months in to u.s. intervention in korea. an effort that republicans used against his party. eisenhower was saddled with a postwar economy. by the midterms in 1958, u.s. unemployment spiked to nearly
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7%, double when he was first elected six years earlier. in the 2006, the u.s. was in to the iraq war and facing heavy rye lens and combination for president bush and his party. what about more president obama and the democrats? should they worry? i say maybe not so much. in 2010, the party lost 63 seats in the house, 6 seats in the senate. president obama famously called it an shallacking and it was. the likely scenario, limits the losses like reagan did or add seats like clinton. president obama almost guaranteed to do better in the house. hard to do worse than he did in the first midterm and then democrats have this helpful anecdote. if they hold on to the control of the senate, the president can declare partial victory for that. that was the importance of adding seats. republicans have to win six
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senate seats and that's big and what they have to do to get control in 2014. the gaggle will be back right after the break. the good, the bad and ugly of the 2012 campaign ad season. they made us laugh or cringe. which ones made people actually go out and vote? ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] everyone deserves the gift of all day pain relief. this season, discover aleve. all day pain relief with just two pills. i don't have to leave my desk and get up and go to the post office anymore. [ male announcer ] with stamps.com you can print real u.s. postage for all your letters and packages. i have exactly the amount of postage i need, the instant i need it.
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oh, beautiful, for spacious skies. for amber waves of grain. for purple mountains majesty above the fruited plane. america america. god shed his grace on thee. and crown thy good. >> our gaggle here was almost unanimous in naming that ad as one of the most memorable and effect of the campaign. that's saying something in a
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race where nearly a billion dollars was spent just in the presidential race. it's tough to stand out. they're all back with me now. what's interesting now, kevin and stephanie, you both picked that ad as the most effective and both of you on the democratic side and you picked the most effective ad on the republican side. here it is. >> he tried. you tried. it's okay to make a change. >> so. i thought that was interesting. respecting the other's work. kevin, you picked the america the beautiful. what -- >> i remember when that ad came out. previewed on a sunday morning and stephanie and i are both on "face the nation." first time i saw it on air and while it's playing, i'm thinking that's a very good ad. it's oftentimes to use a candidate's words against him. never used the singing against him. and -- >> by the way, again, an again
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and again. i could not escape it. >> you remember the campaign, that's -- if you say the 2012 campaign, it is very likely to get someone singing an off-key version of "america the beautiful." >> what we tried to use to the advantage is mitt romney's not somebody you can identify with and the heart of the ad is nobody watching that ad has, you know, accounts in the kcaymans and seemed they could not identify with and their point. >> stephanie, the negative ad with a light touch. >> right. >> you know? that always is the most effective. a light touch. >> it's a juxtaposition. here he is singing about america the beautiful and then, you know, it forces how to turn and look at the tv and then on the tv you see just scrollinging down, cayman island investment, swiss bank account. why's he investing overseas? >> rnc ad, most effective on the president and where did it go?
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>> right. that was the argument that we were worried most about. if you look at -- you know, democrats consolidated. republicans consolidated. >> yes. >> there's a small segment in the middle. they were not quite ready to say i want another four years. >> they liked him. >> they didn't have the support. >> it was a perfect message to them. it's okay to make a change. he tried. you tried. let's move forward. >> why didn't you use that? >> it was something that i think buoyed the president. the personal likability factor and people felt it was something to focus on the economy, it was something to go out there -- that was a mistake and stephanie pointed out which is that we didn't do in it a broad and sustained way and only in sort of precise hits here and there. >> to your credit, i thought the negative ads were within bounds. where things weren't within bounds all the time was on the senate level. i have a little bit of sort of a best of what i thought were some of the most negative ads of the
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cycle. here it is. >> carmona is not who he seems. he has issues with angers, ethics and women. >> with a history of bar brawls, altercations and road rage, a trail of unpaid debts and tax leans, one of the worst attendance records in congress this year. >> mitt romney made over $100 million by shutting down our plant and devastated our lives. turns out that when we built that stage, it was like building my own coffin. >> debbie spent so much money. your economy is weak. ours get very good. we take your jobs. thank you, debbie. >> that's the best. the sort of -- there was a hackishness to the ads. >> there was and on the presidential ones, the priority usa ones were very aggressive.
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>> on the line. >> i thought they did a good job of a message. hardest possible mitt romney, outsourcing. in ohio i think they made a difference there and useful and condemning superpacs. >> on the negative front, connie mack ad when nelson thought he could lose. >> they buried him. he got in a bar fight with ron gant. former atlanta brave. >> he was 22. you know? you're an idiot college kid. you're an idiot college kid. >> i say it's funny. we focus on the presidential but you can really only hate those that you know really well. like the pta board race. it can only really dislike the people -- so the lower down you get and know more of the people, the presidential race is like barack obama and mitt romney -- >> that's right. in yonkers, new york, the worst. >> hardest this year and you were talking about it is breaking through and your ad
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that broke through virally -- >> yes. >> big bird. >> without any money behind it. >> you never spent -- never aired on actual television. >> it did. it was part of our rotation. just out of there in earned media, 5 million people went to look at it. >> here's the most viral ad of 2012. >> together, we can do this. we can take this country back. ♪ i am america ♪ one voice united we stand ♪ i am america >> there it is! does it get any better? >> it was a great ad and same time -- >> it was -- >> no desire whatsoever to be president. >> no path. >> it was like this is fascinating if you're not trying to be a serious presidential candidate. >> or just have fun. >> it's not just smoking. i'm anti-staff staffer. i think we have to --
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>> you won't get -- >> no tv ads for any candidates i have worked for. >> gosh. >> holding him to that. >> advice for other staffers. >> all right. gaggle sticking with us. we have d.c.'s favorite political parlay game is 2016. when you have an open seat for the presidency, it's open season for us to talk about it. don't forget. check it out at our website. always follow us on facebook. poke us, like us. do whatever you want to us. [ male announcer ] it's that time of year again. time for citi price rewind. because your daughter really wants that pink castle thing. and you really don't want to pay more than you have to. only citi price rewind automatically searches for the lowest price. and if it finds one, you get refunded the difference. just use your citi card and register your purchase online. have a super sparkly day! ok. [ male announcer ] now all you need is a magic carriage. citi price rewind. start saving at citi.com/pricerewind.
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after it's all over when your insurance rates go down then you speak to me in 2016. >> any time anyone makes a trip to iowa people speculate about your future. so let's just be blunt. i am not now or never will be a coordinator for offensive coordinator.
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>> i have a warm regard for people of iowa and new hampshire. >> party favorites flirting with the 2016 run. let's be honest. there's a potential dynasty dueover that dominates. let's bring back the gaggle. i look at this and say, it's bush, its's clinton, it's for all the marbles. it's rematch. if we don't get them, what will we do with ourselves? >> you know, it's -- good question, chuck. >> i love good primaries and great generals more. come on. >> this would be like that time when you're like if hillary clinton ran for the senate and rudy giuliani -- >> it's the only thing close to it is kennedy-nixon with the two big stars. >> titanic figures of the party. you know, the thing i would say is i actually think it is not too farfetched to think that could happen. i think if hillary clinton does run, i find it hard to believe that cuomos of the world stay in.
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less clear that jeb clears out of primary but he is the ideological, the guy who can mash the conservatives and the kind of establishment. he is the best case to me tie purist versus the pragmatist. >> jeb could bridge the divide. it is not clear to me that clinton is a nature heir to the obama coalition is it or is she? >> no natural heir. people want you to earn it. but i think that there is no argument out there she hasn't earned it. she has. and, you know, i think that she has done remarkably well as the secretary of state. and who's talking about it earlier in kevin was. that when she speaks, everybody in this country listens. >> yeah. >> she is a voice of authority on so many issues and also this is the year of the woman. >> it is. >> what will happen in four years? >> the two most popular figures we tested in the last poll, both
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named clinton. number three is obama. bill and hillary. their favorable rating is higher than the president. >> don't like about hillary clinton, running for president again -- >> sure. >> the heir, though, i think, the other interesting thing is i don't think the heir is joe biden. i think elizabeth warren, an unusual name out there -- i'm with you. >> she would have a great chance to maybe even defeat someone if it was not hillary clinton. >> i know. the joe biden thing, we underestimate him. he's a sitting vice president. >> vice president of the united states. >> vice president of the united states. >> a secret weapon out there. >> it's a weird thing. >> he is very good on the -- people -- he gets caricatured. if you watch him in -- on the stump, he's very good at connecting. >> look. >> he is. he does make mistakes. >> you loved him. >> i disagree. >> you love to mock him. you think he's a joke and done? >> i think he's been built in to the obama organization and how he flourished. i think he has a lot of people
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in the media that like him. i think if this were -- i hate to play my media bias card but as a republican caricatured much worse than he really is and i just don't see him having -- to stephanie's point, you cannot sort of borrow or live off of or be an heir to somebody else's organization. >> bush temporarily did it with reagan in '88 and didn't hold. >> nowadays you have to build and manage and own your own organization. >> i agree with that. there is no heir but i do think that joe biden is formidable. he really was our secret weapon out there. ohio, iowa. >> if she doesn't run -- >> he lived in those states. >> i'm not betting on andy cuomo. >> you are not? >> i would. >> not betting against him. >> same argument for hillary clinton. has the money, the establishment and good people around her.
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well, i mean -- >> joe's likable. >> cuomo is not as formidable as hillary clinton looked. >> how do you prevent a republican primary picture that you guys had? which i think a lot of you folks in romney world believe the primaries hurt mitt romney. >> i think the debates actually were -- became a sideshow there and if you looked at the volatility of the electorate at the time and how the numbers went up and down based on debate performances, and the sideshow that they became, i think that was something that had a very big effect. >> you could have a -- >> i think the rnc can step in and take a management role in the process there and have an impact on an actual nominee and that nominee much more viably g. >> you and i -- fairly large field. jeb would shrink it a little bit but without jeb, boy, i think seven, eight of serious people -- >> i was going to say unlike the '12 field, when you really had
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kind of like rick santorum is the last guy standing against mitt romney? >> front-runner. >> should have gone to vegas and bet works have been a billionaire. herman cain? you have real people, paul ryan, the vp nominee, bobby jindal, a governor of a state, marco rubio, a senator, you know, john thune, nobody talked about, another senator. you've got real -- >> throw another name no one is talking about here, of the four embattled republican governors, florida, wisconsin, michigan and ohio, whoever survived will run for president. >> i think scott walk wore love to run for president if paul ryan doesn't. >> hard to see the 12016 republican ticket doesn't have a woman or minority. rubio, nikki haley. >> thought for sure there would be a woman on the ticket in the democratic party and hasn't been one yet. anyway, trivia time. anyway, we ask, who was the first president and who was the most recent president to officially start a term on a sunday, which sort of messes up inauguration plans here in washington in the answer is
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james monroe and ronald reagan. first time the inauguration date fell on a sunday was 1821 and most recent, reagan reelected, president obama's second inaugural will fall on a sunday, which means he will take the oath and do it all for the public the next day. if you have got a political trivia question for us, e-mail us at dailyrundown@msnbc.com. we will be right back with prediction and plugs from our gaggle. apologies to mr. mclaughlin. we will be right back. ♪
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constipated? yeah. mm. some laxatives like dulcolax can cause cramps. but phillips' caplets don't. they have magnesium. for effective relief of occasional constipation. thanks. [ phillips' lady ] live the regular life. phillips'.
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let's bring back the gaggle. final thoughts here. if i posed this question to you, kevin, a year from now, 2013, we will say 2013 was about what in washington? >> i think a lot of it has to do with the numberen party's going to be trying to modernize their message, but i think the two parties are now at an effort to sort of energize their base and
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get things done in washington. going to be looking at two big issues, i think the tax reform. there's general disagreement. >> how it goes? >> where they agree on things like corporate rate and that tax reform. and also immigration reform. >> and stephanie, let me put it a slightly different way. how long does president obama's second term last? second terms don't last four years sometimes. domestically. >> they last four years but there is a shelf life to what you can get done because people are going to start looking at the midterms pretty quickly. 2013 is a very important year to get things done, tax reform, immigration reform, we have to finish implementing the health care law a year from right now, people are going to be signing up for exchanges in states all over the country. >> what do you -- >> we don't know if barack obama is a liberal, moderate, debating that four years, six years. next year, we will know what -- >> a pragmatic. >> an ideologue at times? we will know. >> i'm going to put you on the
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spot. >> i'm ready. >> mcauliffe. the big race of 2013, which by the way will dominate the washington media market, mcauliffe and cuccinelli. >> going off to -- >> does he win? >> cuccinelli, he wins, 2016? >> the year of 2012, besides barack obama's re-election, the year america got comfortable with gay marriage. nothing think b that is it for this special year-end edition of the daily run down. watch us every week date 9 a.m. here on msnbc. happy holidays. happy new year. be safe from all of us at the daily run down. that's why there's glucerna hunger smart shakes. they have carb steady, with carbs that digest slowly to help minimize blood sugar spikes. [ male announcer ] glucerna hunger smart.
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